What happened?
Two things at once. First, according to reports cited by CryptoSlate, a meeting is set to take place at the White House on August 19 between President Donald Trump, the heads of the SEC and CFTC regulators, and leaders of crypto firms and companies running prediction markets. Second, according to Cointelegraph, the investment firm Galaxy has lowered its estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year to just 10%.
The CLARITY Act is a forthcoming U.S. market-structure law that aims to divide oversight of crypto assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), thereby clarifying when a token is a security and when it is a commodity. It has long been one of the industry's top legislative priorities.
Who is expected at the meeting?
According to CryptoSlate, leaders from the following firms are expected to attend:
| Firm / organization | Note |
|---|---|
| Coinbase | crypto exchange |
| Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) | venture fund |
| Ripple | XRP issuer / payments infrastructure |
| Chainlink | oracle network |
| Kalshi | prediction market |
| Paradigm | crypto fund |
| Digital Chamber | industry lobby |
Representatives from the exchanges Kraken and Gemini, as well as the traditional exchanges New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, were also reportedly invited. The exact list of confirmed attendees and the meeting agenda had not been publicly confirmed at the time of writing.
Why does Galaxy see the odds at only 10%?
According to Cointelegraph, Galaxy analysts justified the low estimate with several unresolved issues:
- questions of ethics,
- stablecoin yield,
- developer protection,
- a narrow time window in the Senate after lawmakers return from recess in September.
This is one firm's estimate, not an official forecast. It characterizes the current mood on Capitol Hill rather than a definitive outcome.
What does the White House say?
According to Kryptomagazín, the White House remains determined to push the law through this year. Digital assets adviser Patrick Witt reportedly promised further talks with Democrats ahead of the September vote, while also warning that room for further delays is quickly disappearing. According to the same source, the Senate is expected to work on the matter in mid-September.
In its weekly overview, CoinDesk summed up the situation by saying that Washington "just barely" kept the industry's biggest legislative hope alive. Alongside that, it mentioned market moves in the broader context of the week (among other things, a security event that prompted large volumes of bitcoin to be moved, and a $1.8 billion Mastercard transaction), which, however, do not directly relate to the CLARITY Act.
What to take away from this?
We have a tension between political effort (the White House meeting, the administration's public determination) and a cold market estimate (Galaxy at 10%). Both can be true at the same time: the administration can push, and the legislation can still get stuck in the Senate.
What to watch in this type of situation: whether the August 19 meeting actually takes place and with whom, what specific compromises on ethics, stablecoin yield, and developer protection emerge, and what the Senate's September voting calendar looks like. These are verifiable points against which Galaxy's estimate and the White House's promises can later be checked.
Charliedesk does not give any investment advice. This is a record of what has been announced and reported, not a prediction of the price of anything.