Rapport matinal du marché

Morning Market Report. Wednesday, November 4, 2026.

The crypto market is opening Wednesday in a cautious mood, with the overall regime pointing firmly downward and participation in any recovery remaining very narrow across the board.

BTC sits at $76,637, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Despite that soft price action, 72% of the crowd holds long positions, and new leveraged bets on a price rise are still being added. The fee that traders bullish on BTC pay to hold those leveraged positions stands at 11% annualized, which is elevated and signals crowded optimism. In the last hour alone, over $26 million worth of long leveraged positions were forcibly closed, compared to just $2 million on the short side. That imbalance shows the pressure is landing squarely on bulls.

ETH is flat at $2,253, but the same picture applies: 73% long crowd, new bullish leverage being added, and $16.8 million in long liquidations in the past hour versus just $357k on the short side. SOL at $91.55 is down 0.8%, with the highest crowd long reading among the four coins at 77%, and $5 million in long liquidations in the last hour. XRP at $1.264 is the only coin showing a small green candle, up 0.78%, though the same crowded long structure applies there too.

On flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for three consecutive days, with $20.6 million leaving yesterday alone and $621.6 million exiting over the past week. That is real money moving away from BTC, not just derivatives noise. The Fear and Greed index sits at 34, in Fear territory, and total crypto market cap has dropped 0.81% to $2.57 trillion. Bitcoin's share of the total market is 59.2%, a relatively high dominance reading. The VIX, a measure of expected turbulence in traditional stock markets, stands at 20.83, which is modestly elevated and reflects some broader unease in macro markets.

What to watch today. The clearest tension to monitor is the gap between what the crowd believes (heavily long, expecting a rise) and what the market regime data is showing (a strong downtrend with very few coins participating in any recovery). When that many leveraged long positions exist in a falling market, further forced closures of those bets can amplify any downside move. We are also measuring an internal score we call a heat check for BTC and ETH: BTC scores 0.29 and ETH 0.22 out of a possible 1.0. This is a measurement we track over time rather than a confirmed signal, so we share it for transparency without reading too much into it yet. The continued ETF outflow streak is worth watching closely as the day develops.